Two teams who had contrasting fortunes in the first game meet in Toulouse when Italy take on Sweden. For a side that’s supposedly the worst that they’ve produced in 50 years, Italy were very good in their opening game against Belgium, whilst Sweden were one of the worst teams in the competition in the first round. Italy’s shock performance saw the betting odds change dramatically and they’re now favourites to win Group E at odds of 4/23.
There are many certainties in life: Christmas every year, paying taxes and Italy putting in a defensive masterclass in a football match. Never has a side Italy-ied a game more than Antonio Conte’s side against Belgium on Monday night. The Belgians fired 13 shots in Gianluigi Buffon’s direction, yet he remained resolute, as did the men in front of him. A similar performance from the evergreen Italian goalkeeper against Sweden is priced at evens. Italy were much better than anyone gave them credit for on Monday and it reinforces Conte’s credentials as the best manager in Euro 2016. A lot has been said for Italy’s defensive performance, but they did manage to score 2 goals. They haven’t scored over two in 33 games, but a 3-0 victory against the Swedes is priced at 13/1. Graziano Pelle’s goal in stoppage time was a finish to behold and he’s backed at 9/5 to score at any time against Sweden. Late goals on the counter attack have been a feature of the tournament so far. Pelle’s was just one of these, and odds of another goal being scored after the 75th minute are 27/20.
In contrast to Italy’s performance, Sweden were very disappointing. They drew 1-1 to Republic of Ireland, with a 71st minute own goal by Ciaran Clark saving the Swedes from an even poorer start to the tournament. They do have Zlatan Ibrahimovic in their ranks though, tipped at 6/1 to score first against Italy, he’s a danger from anywhere on the pitch. However, he was ineffective against Ireland, having to drop deep into the midfield to collect the ball. You’d worry about how much service he’ll receive against Italy if Conte sets his team up in the same way again. They only had 4 shots on goal against Republic of Ireland and it seems unlikely that they’ll get many more in this game.
Match Prediction
This match looks as if it’s headed in only one direction, with Italy winning the game and keeping a clean sheet whilst doing so, priced at 8/5. Italy’s record suggests that they’re confident in going ahead and maintaining their lead (take note England), and with their equivalent of the BBC in Barzagli, Bonucci and Chiellini at the back, then they’ve no reason not to be. I’d worry for Sweden in terms of how far they’ll progress in the tournament. There’s Zlatan, but he’s a finisher rather than a creator, and with not much creativity around him, his impact looks minimal. A 2-0 Italy win is priced at 13/2.
