This tie between these two Mediterranean giants is a rematch of the Euro 2012 final, and looks set to be one of the ties to watch in the Round of 16. Croatia set the cat amongst the pigeons in the group by beating Spain, which led to them finishing second in the group, whilst Italy confirmed their status as winners of Group E after two games, but go into this tie as underdogs at 33/10.
The start of Spain’s golden period of international football coincided with a victory over Italy in Euro 2008. This will be the fourth time that they’ve met since, with Spain winning all three of the previous meetings. Odds on them to make it a fourth consecutive victory are at 23/20, but this will not be a walkover for them. Their game plan is designed to wear teams down, however as has already been proven in this tournament, it takes a lot to wear down this Italian team. Alvaro Morata will be very familiar with the Italian defenders and is the favourite to score first at 4/1. The Juventus striker plays with them for his club, and has already scored three goals in the tournament. Only David Villa and Fernando Torres have scored more goals for Spain in the European Championships. Andres Iniesta and David Silva are far superior to their Italian counterparts, but they’ll have their work cut out against the Italian defence.
Italy’s tournament so far has consisted of two wins and a defeat against Ireland, although the defeat wasn’t surprising, considering the Italian tradition of not bothering in meaningless games added to Ireland having to win it. Their game plan is modelled on their defence, which is set to see Giorgio Chiellini recalled alongside Andrea Barzagli and Leonardo Bonucci. Odds on an Italian clean sheet are 19/10, but there’s so little between the two sides, that it seems inevitable that both teams will score, available at 6/4. The defeat against Ireland was their first in 13 competitive games under Antonio Conte, and such is his winning desire, he won’t want to bow out as the Italian coach without winning. Goals however have been an issue for the Italian side. They’ve never scored more than twice in 36 games at the European Championships and have failed to score in three of their last four knockout games in the Euros.
This tie is almost impossible to predict. Both sides play with contrasting styles, with the Spanish playing expansively through pass and move, whilst Italy have the capacity to “do an Italy” and sit and defend happily for 90 minutes, forcing the opposition to break them down. The final of Euro 2012 was the only time that there’s been a clear winner between the two sides, with all other ties being decided by narrow margins. This game looks destined for extra time. A 1-1 scoreline after 90 minutes is priced at 11/2, whilst Italy to qualify is available at 8/5.