The Community Shield takes place on Sunday, with many saying that it’s just a glorified friendly. Regardless of your opinion on it, it’s actually a very good opportunity to win some money. Here are five reasons why that’s the case.
The favourite doesn’t always win
This is true for betting on any sporting event, but with the exception of Manchester United’s victory over Leicester in 2016, the pre-match favourite hasn’t always fared too well in the Community Shield. Arsenal beat Chelsea last season and in 2015. The Gunners weren’t favourites heading into either game. They also beat Manchester City 3-0 in 2014, while Manchester United beat league and cup double holders Chelsea in 2010. In hindsight, you could argue that David Moyes’ Manchester United team weren’t favourites when they took on Wigan in 2013… The unpredictability factor makes this game hugely exciting and gives some good value for punters.
There are usually some goals
The last Community Shield to finish goalless was back in 2008 when Manchester United and Portsmouth played each other. It was also the first goalless draw since 1991, so going for goals in this one is always a good sign. Since then, there have been more than three goals in the match on six occasions, with both teams scoring also on six occasions. In the 17 Community Shields since the turn of the century, the winning team has scored two or more goals on 12 occasions. The goal markets in this fixture tend to be quite lucrative if you pick the right one.
Breakout stars
The Community Shield is a chance for managers to put their young players in the spotlight in a marquee fixture played at Wembley. Tom Cleverley was touted as England’s “Next Big Thing” after his performance in the 2011 edition. Wilfried Zaha played for Manchester United in 2013, in what was one of his rare appearances for the Red Devils. Rob Holding, Reiss Nelson and Charley Musonda all featured in last year’s game. It might not sound too exciting, but betting on any breakout players to score could prove to be a good idea if they start the game.
It’s better than friendly matches
Just last week, Jose Mourinho berated the pre-season friendly structure and how he wouldn’t pay to follow Manchester United in their warm-up matches. He might have a point, as many of those fixtures feature young unproven talent, alongside players who might not even be at the same club at the end of that summer. Betting on pre-season friendly matches can be a complete lottery and it’s very hard to pick up trends with two top teams playing against each other. However, the Community Shield is different and there are some records that you can follow. Which player has a good scoring record against the opposition? Is there a history of cards in the game? Lots of corners? All factors that can be used in the Community Shield to base bets on.
There’s no guarantee that the winners of the Community Shield will go on to win the league
The Community Shield may be the least prestigious trophy among domestic honours, despite Mourinho’s insistence that it is a trophy worth winning. However, winning it isn’t a reliable way of predicting who will win the Premier League in that season. Since 1992, only seven clubs that won the Shield have gone on to become league champions in the same season, with Manchester United in 2010/11 the last team to do so. Gianluca Vialli was sacked shortly after guiding Chelsea to victory in 2000. Arsenal have won three of the last four Community Shields, but the highest they’ve finished in the league in that time is fourth.