The Copa America 2021 has been marred by controversy over the last few weeks, but the football finally gets underway this Sunday when Brazil play Venezuela. The tournament was expected to take place in Colombia and Argentina, but last month those venues were changed, and it will now be played in Brazil due to a variety of issues. However, even after that venue change, as well as the coronavirus delay from last summer’s initial date, we are expecting an exciting tournament. The format has now changed, with two groups of five who play in a round-robin, before four of the five in each group progress to the knockout rounds, due to the lack of guest teams because of the pandemic.
The Favourites
Brazil are our 11/10 favourites to win their home tournament, and they have definitely looked good value for that. They handily won the tournament in 2019, and with the home advantage now, there’s a reason why bookies are giving their opponents very little chance. Coach Tite took over in 2016, with the wounds off that loss to Germany still raw, and has transformed them into a truly imposing outfit. They’ve been playing other South American teams throughout qualification for the World Cup, and they haven’t even been troubled on their unbeaten run of six games to this point. Just look at their opening game against Venezuela. Their opponents are 15/1 underdogs, while Brazil are essentially unbackable at 1/7. We understand that the price for the hosts to win the whole tournament isn’t great for a team at an international tournament, particularly if you compare it to France or England at the Euros, starting around the same time, it does seem to be good value. At a price over evens, you could still stand to make a decent amount of money if you bet the right amount and it gets doubled.
We struggle to see any other team taking it, even Argentina who are second favourites at 11/4. They’re probably going to struggle, despite the fact that they are also unbeaten in World Cup qualification. Their whole tournament plan probably relies heavily on the performances of Lionel Messi, which is never good for a team at a big major tournament like this. They haven’t won it since 1993, but it isn’t completely impossible that they could shock the system at this most strange of tournaments. That strangeness is vitally important when it comes to betting on this tournament. We don’t know what intangibles there are going to be and what impact they are going to have, but we’re sure that the change in host countries will be playing on the mind of all teams, not just the likes of Argentina and Brazil.
The Outsiders
So what about the outsiders? Uruguay may grab the attention of some of the punters, and at a price of 17/2, we can see why. Their match with Argentina on Saturday, June 19th is going to be absolutely vital when it comes time to see who will win the group, and they’ll be confident that they can get to the top. We certainly like the 2011 champions’ chances better than fellow outsiders Peru or Colombia, who are priced at 33/1 and 11/2 respectively.
In terms of individual matches, we can definitely see a score win for Argentina in their opening game against Chile. We love the 13/5 price for that outcome, and it definitely is worth taking a look at, maybe in a multibet with some Euros games on the same day; June 14th. Messi will be looking to get back on the scoresheet at international level, and will also be watching the clock tick down on a potential career without winning an international trophy, which will surely affect his legacy when compared with the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo from his generation, or Pele and Maradona from those past. He’s already at a disadvantage due to staying for so long with Barcelona, where Ronaldo has proven his mettle in England, Italy and Spain, as well as taking a Euros medal in 2016. We can also see a Paraguay win over Bolivia with under 2.5 goals at 37/20 in that June 15th meeting, and that price is definitely going to make some people big money if it does come to fruition.
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*Odds are subject to change and are correct at time of writing