Our expert tipster has taken a look at this Euro 2020 last 16 tie between Croatia and believes that this is a game which is much closer than bookies are making it out to be.
Croatia v Spain
June 28th, 2021, 5pm
Parken Stadium, Copenhagen
Live on ITV
Croatia v Spain Preview
Spain are almost unbackable favourites to go through to the Euro 2020 quarter-finals here, but can we be so sure given what we know about both teams.
We’d imagine that two results and performances are being taken into account when looking at the odds for this; Spain’s 5-0 drubbing of Slovakia in the final group game and Croatia’s disappointing loss to England in their first game.
However, the Croatia that put Scotland to the sword looked something like the side we saw in Russia three years ago battle all the way to a World Cup final, and we think this game won’t be as easy for the Spanish as bookmakers are predicting.
Croatia v Spain Betting Odds
Spain are pretty considerable favourites in this one, but it’s definitely harder to call than it is given credit for by the oddsmakers.
Remember that this is a knockout game, so if it goes to extra-time and/or penalties and the team you have backed to win goes through, you have still lost the bet. You must bet on the ‘to qualify’ market to back a team to go through via any method.
Spain are 20/33 for victory (2/7 to qualify), with the draw a 11/4 shot and Croatia sizable underdogs with a price of 11/2 (53/20 to qualify).
Croatia v Spain Betting Tips
Odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Double chance, Croatia or tie – 7/5
These odds seem unfairly skewed, and this is pretty good value for knockout football at this level. We haven’t seen any particularly massive upsets in the first four games, barring probably the Czech Republic knocking out the Netherlands, but Italy got pushed right to the brink by Austria, and the disparity between Spain and World Cup finalists Croatia would be, at least on paper, less sizable than that of Austria and Italy. Even if they make it to extra-time, this would still get you paid.
Half Time/Full Time: Tie/Spain – 3/1
We like the chances of this being a cagey encounter, which is won late on, perhaps 1 or 2-0 after a scoreless first half. Both teams will be hard to break down, so it’s possible this will be the outcome, and 3/1 is a pretty good price.
Luka Modric to score anytime – 8/1
The Real Madrid star got on the scoresheet against Scotland, and we think he might be able to get himself a goal here as well. He knows how to exploit a lot of these Spanish players, having gone against them, or played with them, over the last decade playing in La Liga. This could be a massive game for the Bernabeu star, and he’ll be looking for a big performance either way.