The Miami Dolphins will welcome the New England Patriots to Hard Rock Stadium this Sunday afternoon for their second face-off of the season, with Miami enjoying a 24-17 win in New England during Week 2.
Dominating with a potent offense, the Dolphins lead the AFC East with a 5-2 tally. Conversely, Bill Belichick’s Patriots, at 2-5, are at the division’s bottom.
Yet, after a commendable win against the Buffalo Bills, they’ll approach this game with renewed confidence.
Will the Dolphins endure their season’s first home defeat? Read on for our Patriots vs Dolphins game insights and top NFL picks based on the latest NFL odds.
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Patriots vs Dolphins Matchup
In Week 7, the Dolphins, led by Tua Tagovailoa, faced challenges against Jalen Hurts and the Eagles.
As for Mac Jones’s Patriots, they resisted a Buffalo comeback, clinching a dramatic victory against the previous AFC East champs.
Miami recorded its season’s lowest points (17), while New England achieved a season-best 29 points.
Although the Dolphins and Patriots showcased contrasting performances, Miami’s overall consistency this year justifies them going into this as favourites.
Mike McDaniel’s Dolphins have been exceptional offensively, with a league-leading 7.7 yards per play.
They now confront a defence ranking within the top 10 for yards allowed per play at 4.8. Recall, in their Week 2 encounter, Miami accumulated 389 total yards, which could well be repeated here.
With Miami leading in both passing and rushing touchdowns, they’re poised to outperform a team trailing mid-league in these metrics.
For the Patriots to triumph, Jones needs to replicate his previous week’s prowess. The young quarterback displayed his season’s finest, with 25 of 30 completions for 272 yards and two touchdowns.
It’s also worth noting that Miami’s secondary is injury-ridden with All-Pro cornerbacks Jalen Ramsey and Xavien Howard nursing knee and groin injuries respectively, which could be pivotal when it comes to the outcome.
Patriots vs Dolphins Prediction
Last weekend, the Dolphins didn’t show their typical prowess despite boasting one of the best rosters in the NFL, meaning they might see reinforcements on both offensive and defensive fronts soon.
However, despite setbacks from injuries affecting key players and defence positions, Miami’s trio – Raheem Mostert, Tyreek Hill, and Tagovailoa – has consistently stepped up.
During their last encounter with the Patriots, Mostert was particularly impressive, recording 121 rushing yards and two touchdowns.
Facing challenges against versatile offenses throughout the season, the Patriots now confront possibly their toughest opponent so far and the Dolphins have a strong chance to dominate this matchup.
Betting Trends for Patriots vs Dolphins
- New England owns two wins against the spread this season.
- A pair of New England seven games in 2023 have hit the over.
- Miami has a 5-2-0 record against the spread this season.
- The Dolphins are yet to lose ATS (2-0) as a 9.5-point favourite or greater this year.
- The teams have hit the over in four of Miami’s seven games with a set total.
Best NFL Bets for Patriots vs Dolphins
-7.5 @ 1.81
In the surprising victory over the Bills last week, the Patriots’ offense thrived with Mac Jones’ downfield throws, significantly aided by their running game.
While they narrowly lost 24-17 in their Week 2 clash in New England, the dynamics have changed.
Miami displays stronger offensive plays on the road. However, given their defensive injury uncertainties, there’s potential for Jones and his main players to heat things up and ensure a competitive game once more.
Even so, it’s hard to see them keeping one of the most potent offences in the NFL quiet for the whole game so the Dolphins to cover the spread is our best NFL bet today.
Under 47 Points @ 1.77
In Week 2, the Patriots limited the Dolphins to their season’s lowest score.
However, New England will miss Christian Gonzalez, who intercepted Tagovailoa earlier this season, due to a shoulder injury.
Yet, with J.C. Jackson back, their secondary remains strong. While the weapon-rich Dolphins are bound to score, if anyone can restrain them, it’s Belichick’s Patriots.
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