Riding the momentum of a two-game win streak, the Denver Broncos (3-5) emerge from their bye week aiming to topple the Buffalo Bills (5-4) in their own back yard.
Despite a recent dip in form with a 2-3 record over their last five games, Josh Allen’s Bills maintain a formidable reputation on home turf.
The Broncos, bolstered by their impressive Week 8 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs, face a challenging task as they seek to extend their resurgence against a tough Bills squad known for its resilience in front of a passionate home crowd.
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Broncos vs Bills Matchup
The Denver Broncos’ defence has tightened up in recent games, holding opponents to 19 points or less over three games, with one of those being a significant win against the Chiefs.
They’ve improved to allowing only 6.66 yards per passing attempt, ranking 13th in the league, while their run defence has seen them yield 4.19 yards per carry, placing them at 22nd.
This performance is a leap forward from the 9.15 yards per passing attempt and 6.13 yards per carry given up in the initial weeks, ranking them last in both categories.
Josh Allen has been dominant at home for the Bills this season, with an average of 289.2 passing yards per game and 8.4 yards per attempt, alongside 13 touchdowns to just three interceptions across five games.
Russell Wilson, on the other hand, has been underwhelming, not managing to cross the 200-yard mark in his last four outings, making it hard to envision him matching Allen’s offensive output on Sunday night.
Broncos vs Bills Prediction
Since the start of the 2021 season, the Buffalo Bills have established an imposing home-field advantage, amassing an impressive 17-4 record at the fortress that is Highmark Stadium.
Even more commanding is their tendency to not just win, but to do so decisively, with 14 of those victories coming with a margin of eight points or more.
On Sunday Night Football, the Denver Broncos will likely have to place their trust in Javonte Williams to exploit Buffalo’s vulnerability against the run.
The Bills have conceded an average of 4.62 yards per rush this season, which positions them at a concerning 28th in the league.
However, the strategy to keep the game grounded faces a significant hitch; falling behind early, which is often the case against high-scoring Buffalo, can force a shift to a passing strategy.
And that’s where Denver’s woes could deepen. Their aerial attack hasn’t shown the capacity to compete in shootouts.
Compounding the predicament, quarterback Russell Wilson has been sacked at least four times in two of his last three appearances, a trend that spells trouble against the aggressive Bills’ defence, especially in the pressure cooker of a primetime game in Buffalo.
Best NFL Bets for Broncos vs Bills
Buffalo Bills -7.5 @
Considering the Bills’ track record of strong performances on their home turf, it’s difficult to envision them dropping this game.
The point spread stands at 7.5, which seems quite reasonable given Buffalo’s tendency to secure victories with comfortable double-digit margins at home.
Furthermore, this matchup carries a sense of urgency for the Bills, who find themselves just behind the Cincinnati Bengals for the last AFC wild-card berth.
In essence, Buffalo is in a position where they can’t afford to concede a home game to a Denver team that’s not expected to make the playoffs. The stakes are high, and the Bills must deliver.
Under 42 Points @ 2.83
Buffalo’s vulnerabilities were exposed in Cincinnati, where a depleted defence and a thin offense beyond Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs became evident.
Meanwhile, the Broncos, buoyed by a two-game win streak and a significant victory against Kansas City, will pose a challenge to Buffalo despite the Bills’ perfect 3-0 record at Highmark Stadium this season is a formidable advantage.
Denver, fresh from a bye and high on their win over the Chiefs, will likely rattle Buffalo initially, but winning at the Highmark Stadium is a daunting task.
Expect the Broncos to keep it close, ultimately falling short in what will probably be a low scoring game.
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