It has been another tremendously competitive tournament at Flushing Meadows this year that has seen some of the pre-tournament favourites — including Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz and Coco Gauff – exit earlier than expected.
We have now reached the semi-final stage and both the women’s and men’s draws could see a player win the US Open for the first time.
NetBet has your essential semi-final preview with great tennis odds for your bets, as we assess who is likely to be in with a chance of lifting the famous trophy in New York.
The US Open Semi-Finals 2024
Friday, September 6
Billie Jean King National Tennis Centre, Flushing Meadows, New York, USA
Live on SkySports+ (UK)
Women’s Semi-Final Preview
Jessica Pegula vs Karolina Muchova
Despite six attempts to advance past the quarter-final stage, Jessica Pegula had never reached a Grand Slam semi-final until this year’s US Open, so she is arguably in the form of her career.
Fresh off the back of retaining her Toronto Open crown in the lead up to this year’s final major, her consistent showings on hard courts have finally been rewarded on the biggest stage. And she has looked confident throughout, yet to drop a set so far, even as she came up against world No1 Iga Swiatek in the quarter-final, beating her familiar foe 6-2, 6-4.
Pegula will feel confident of making her debut appearance in a Grand Slam final, but her semi-final opponent is Karolina Muchova who, despite being unseeded this year, has done superbly to reach the latter stages of the tournament again.
Compared to Pegula, Muchova has had a more complicated route to the final. She had to overcome the likes of former world No1 Naomi Osaka in round two and 2024 Wimbledon finalist Jasmine Paolini in round four, all before defeating Beatriz Haddad Maia in their quarter-final to set up this encounter.
With this being her second consecutive US Open semi-final, Muchova will be anxious to make another progressive step and get to the final, matching her career-best major performance that she achieved at Roland Garros in 2023.
Emma Navarro vs Aryna Sabalenka
US hopeful Emma Navarro will be pleased to have set her career-best Grand Slam performance at this year’s US Open by reaching the semi-finals, consolidating a year of good progression overall.
After comfortable wins in the first three rounds against unseeded opponents, Navarro proved her credentials by beating fellow American and defending champion Coco Gauff in the fourth round.
The quarter-final saw her up against Paula Badosa, who she eased past in straight sets, despite being 5-1 down at one point in the second, making a remarkable comeback to secure her place in the semis.
Within which Navarro will face tournament favourite Aryna Sabalenka, who is looking to avenge her defeat in last year’s final and add the US Open to her two Australian Open wins in 2023 and 2024.
As many people’s pick for the tournament, it is no surprise to see Sabalenka at this stage. The Belarusian cruised through the opening rounds, with the only blemish being the opening set in her third round tie against Ekaterina Alexandrova — the only set she has dropped all tournament.
Elise Mertens was brushed aside in the fourth round before her toughest test on paper so far — seventh seed Qinwen Zheng – was made to look an even simpler task, as Sabalenka defeated her 6-1, 6-2 in their quarter-final.
Men’s Semi-Final Preview
Jannik Sinner vs Jack Draper
As the only man left in the draw with a Grand Slam title to his name, which he claimed earlier this year at the Australian Open, it is easy to understand why Jannik Sinner is now the standout favourite to win this year’s US Open.
The Flushing Meadows crowd has taken a liking to the world No1, despite him ending the tournament of three US players so far (Mackenzie McDonald – round 1, Alex Michelsen – round 2, and Tommy Paul – round 4), and he could add a fourth should he make the final.
The quarter-final saw Sinner up against Daniil Medvedev, who ended his Wimbledon dream at the same stage earlier this year. The Italian got some payback for that defeat, taking four sets to dispatch of the Russian No5 seed.
Perhaps the biggest surprise of the men’s draw is Sinner’s semi-final opponent Jack Draper. The Brit has advanced past the second round of a major for the first time in his career, making the most of the early exits of Djokovic and Alcaraz.
It has been a barely believable run by Draper, finding his way to the semi-finals without dropping a set, which has included the quarter-final defeat of 10th seed Alex de Minaur, 6-3, 7-5, 6-2.
Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe
The US Open sees its first all-American semi-final in the men’s draw since 2005, with Taylor Fritz and Frances Tiafoe facing off to see who will represent the country in the final.
Fritz’s road to the semi-finals has included some really impressive performances, defying the odds to be within touching distance of the ultimate prize for any American player.
Most notable were the straight sets victory over Matteo Berrettini in round two and the recovery from a set down to beat Casper Ruud in round four, before the tightly contested quarter-final win against Alexander Zverev.
Meanwhile, Tiafoe has already faced two American opponents on his way to his second US Open semi-final appearance. It took four sets to see off Aleksandar Kovacevic in the first round, while his round three tie with Ben Shelton lasted four hours and five sets before he emerged victorious.
Tiafoe beat Djokovic’s conqueror Alexei Popyrin in round four, which was followed by being awarded a victory over Grigor Dimitrov after the Bulgarian was forced to retire, though the American was two sets to one up and 4-1 up in the fourth.
Women’s Semi-FInal Odds
*Odds are correct at time of publication and subject to change
Navarro – 4.20
Sabalenka – 1.23
Pegula – 1.61
Muchova – 2.32
Men’s Semi-FInal Odds
Sinner – 1.15
Draper – 5.50
Fritz – 1.35
Tiafoe – 3.20
US Open 2024 Betting Tips
Pegula vs Muchova
Home advantage might just get Pegula over the line and into her first major final. The pre-tournament title in Toronto, as well as the confidence-boosting win against Swiatek, probably make Pegula the favourite, irrespective of the solid displays by Muchova.
Navarro vs Sabalenka
Despite the great progress made by Navarro in 2024, with Sabalenka showing incredible form and proving her hardcourt pedigree in the last couple of years, it is difficult to see anything other than her advancing to her second consecutive US Open final.
Sinner vs Draper
It will no doubt be a shock if the only remaining Grand Slam winner and world No1 Sinner did not advance to Sunday’s final, but this has already been a tournament of unlikely results in the men’s draw. Whether Draper can add another to this list is a huge question, so we think Sinner will make his US Open final debut.
Fritz vs Tiafoe
This semi-final is incredibly close to call but Fritz has the edge in this particular match-up, winning six of their seven previous encounters. In addition to this, Tiafoe has spent considerably longer on court in this tournament, despite two of his matches involving retirements, so that could also work against him.
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