As the 2024 season draws to a close, the last event of major significance on the ATP Tour calendar is, of course, the ATP Finals.
The tournament between the eight top-ranked men’s players of the year will once again be hosted in Turin, Italy, and should the eventual winner emerge undefeated, they could earn themselves around $4 million in prize money.
In our preview, we will assess the chances of the players involved, and who we think will end the year on the highest of highs.
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ATP Finals Preview
Jannik Sinner
Having already been confirmed as the ATP year-end No1, Jannik Sinner has already capped an outstanding season, but a win at the ATP Finals would add a further flourish.
Sinner set the foundations for a stellar campaign by claiming his first Grand Slam title at the Australian Open in January, with his run to the final including a semi-final victory over Novak Djokovic, before coming from two sets down to beat Daniil Medvedev in the final.
Sinner would go on to win the most titles of anyone on the ATP Tour with seven, including a second major at the US Open, with the only real blemishes appearing in the form of a semi-final loss at the French Open and a quarter-final exit at Wimbledon.
Sinner’s proficiency on hard courts makes it difficult to see anyone getting the better of him as he looks to confirm his position as the best player in the world.
Alexander Zverev
Through consistent performance, two titles, and a second Grand Slam final appearance, 2024 has seen Alexander Zverev hit a career-high No2 ATP ranking.
The tall, big-serving German has put the injury woes of 2022 behind him by re-discovering some of his best form, even though he still awaits his first win at a major.
Zverev comes into the ATP Finals fresh off the back of winning the ATP Masters 1000 in Paris, fine-tuning his hard court game just in time for the event in Turin – an event he has won twice before in 2018 and 2021.
Carlos Alcaraz
Carlos Alcaraz has had a thrilling 2024 season, with both significant triumphs and unexpected challenges. He claimed victories at two Grand Slams, winning Roland Garros and defending his Wimbledon title. At Roland Garros, he defeated Zverev in a five-set battle to secure his third major title, becoming the youngest man to win Grand Slams on three different surfaces. His Wimbledon victory saw him overcome Djokovic, solidifying his place at the top of the sport.
However, his season also had setbacks, notably a second round defeat at the US Open to Botic van de Zandschulp, which highlighted some mental struggles he acknowledged post-match.
Alcaraz’s accomplishments kept him competitive in the ATP rankings, where he and Sinner engaged in a close race for the year-end No1 position that he ultimately could not win. In fact, he was eventually usurped by Zverev for No2 spot, but nevertheless, this season solidified Alcaraz’s standing as one of tennis’ elite players.
Daniil Medvedev
Despite a high level of consistency, Medvedev is without a title in 2024.
In the Grand Slams, Medvedev reached the final of the Australian Open, although he ultimately fell short in the title match against Sinner. Wimbledon was another highlight without the crowning glory, where he made a career-best semi-final, losing to Alcaraz. Medvedev also made a strong semi-final showing at the US Open, defeating Alcaraz in a standout performance before finishing as runner-up to Djokovic.
In the fall, Medvedev reached the finals in both Beijing and Vienna, though he could not secure any of the titles. He has qualified for the ATP Finals for the sixth consecutive year, where he aims to add another season-ending title to the one he claimed in 2020. Medvedev’s campaign showed his ability to adapt and remain among the elite, despite strong competition from the tour’s rising stars and veterans alike.
Taylor Fritz
Taylor Fritz’s year was marked by consistent performances and several career milestones, with his standout achievement being a run to his first-ever Grand Slam final at the US Open. This result made Fritz the first American man since Andy Roddick in 2009 to reach a major final, boosting his ranking and solidifying his place among the best on the ATP Tour.
Beyond this, Fritz captured titles at the Delray Beach Open and the Eastbourne International, which showcased his strength on hard and grass courts, respectively. His success at these events, along with strong showings at tournaments like the Shanghai Masters, where he reached the semi-finals, helped him accumulate points and put him in position to qualify for the ATP Finals.
Fritz’s powerful serve and baseline consistency were key assets throughout the season, and he demonstrated his growth as a top-tier competitor, ending with a solid win-loss record and considerable momentum heading into the event in Turin.
Casper Ruud
This year saw strong performances from Casper Ruud, with key successes on clay and a major final appearance. His highlight came at the Barcelona Open, where he captured his biggest career title by defeating Stefanos Tsitsipas, a week after a close loss to Tsitsipas in the Monte Carlo Masters final. This win was significant as it underscored Ruud’s dominance on clay, his preferred surface, and boosted his confidence during the spring season.
Ruud also performed well at other Grand Slam and ATP events, although his results varied. Additionally, his year included consistent performances in the ATP Masters 1000 series, maintaining a competitive edge against top players like Djokovic, whom he defeated in a notable Monte Carlo matchup.
Overall, Ruud’s season reinforced his status as a top-tier clay-court player and showcased his resilience and development on faster surfaces. His success helped him stay among the ATP Tour’s elite, demonstrating both growth in his game and consistency across diverse tournaments.
Alex de Minaur
2024 has been one of his most successful yet, featuring consistent high-level performances, a career-best 47 wins, and qualification for the ATP Finals in Turin for the first time. He kicked off the year with a strong showing by winning two ATP titles, including the Mexican Open in Acapulco, which marked one of his biggest career successes.
De Minaur showed impressive resilience to reach the latter rounds in several tournaments, including a semi-final appearance in Vienna. His Paris Masters performance solidified his ATP Finals spot. Throughout 2024, he demonstrated exceptional adaptability on various surfaces and notched key victories against top-ranked opponents, cementing his status as a top-ten player and a serious contender on the ATP Tour moving forward.
Andrey Rublev
Though fortunate this year to qualify for the ATP Finals due to a Djokovic injury, Andrey Rublev is not unfamiliar with this stage, making his fifth straight appearance.
The Russian has shown a strong, consistent performance marked by a blend of key victories, a Masters final, and successful tournament runs. His season included a notable title at the Monte Carlo Masters, where he captured his first ATP Masters 1000 crown on clay after years of coming close.
His calm and strategic approach, especially against top-seeded players, earned him recognition as one of the more resilient players on the tour. He reached the Madrid Masters final, further establishing himself as a consistent threat in both Masters and ATP 500 events. With his spot in the ATP Finals secured, he will aim to improve on his previous best semi-final finish and end the year on a high note.
ATP Finals Odds
*Odds are subject to change
Jannik Sinner – 2.25
Carlos Alcaraz – 3.00
Alexander Zverev – 7.00
Daniil Medvedev – 10.00
Taylor Fritz – 17.00
Alex de Minaur – 21.00
Andrey Rublev – 21.00
Casper Ruud – 41.00
ATP Finals Betting Tips
It is difficult to bet against world No1 and hard court specialist Sinner, who won both the Australian Open and US Open in 2024, making him the favourite just ahead of Alcaraz.
But, if you are looking for an outside bet, we like the form of Zverev. With his recent win at the ATP Masters 1000 in Paris, he has leapfrogged Alcaraz to end the year second in the ATP rankings.
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